Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 4.137605 4.871077 5.683524 6.648324 7.760868 9.001534 10.487855
2025-08-10 2.777033 3.690171 4.815006 6.294184 8.178797 10.489494 13.525782
2025-08-17 1.955058 2.884946 4.139474 5.937065 8.424332 11.718429 16.379693
2025-08-24 1.494982 2.416139 3.759941 5.830738 8.900389 13.232384 19.743156
2025-08-31 1.185662 2.078864 3.475514 5.769485 9.378960 14.757320 23.264270
2025-09-07 1.018161 1.917859 3.412528 6.006513 10.301436 17.002292 28.064917
2025-09-14 0.852836 1.720102 3.245919 6.034273 10.874668 18.752948 32.278425
2025-09-21 0.721243 1.551743 3.093614 6.049839 11.410239 20.478848 36.610792
2025-09-28 0.614871 1.406947 2.954349 6.057989 11.918854 22.195043 41.081588
2025-10-05 0.587156 1.414507 3.100673 6.610655 13.462695 25.831042 49.170600
2025-10-12 0.528408 1.343014 3.077472 6.828440 14.403332 28.485560 55.776717
2025-10-19 0.477821 1.278727 3.056972 7.044754 15.359851 31.252169 62.827897
2025-10-26 0.413794 1.171488 2.931982 7.037300 15.895727 33.332563 68.902653
2025-11-02 0.343056 1.031360 2.709550 6.787282 15.906865 34.415547 73.215559
2025-11-09 0.279310 0.893111 2.464939 6.446445 15.676656 34.990652 76.589672
2025-11-16 0.238857 0.808381 2.333793 6.346457 15.955329 36.619670 82.215192
2025-11-23 0.206452 0.738420 2.226460 6.285421 16.310493 38.437462 88.387655
2025-11-30 0.191413 0.717832 2.245805 6.543635 17.438589 42.014549 98.559889
2025-12-07 0.169763 0.670132 2.181439 6.574333 18.022999 44.450192 106.489573
2025-12-14 0.150498 0.625106 2.115993 6.591409 18.574519 46.861440 114.570657
2025-12-21 0.133479 0.583135 2.051394 6.600309 19.105321 49.272615 122.854140
2025-12-28 0.133732 0.605334 2.187456 7.197932 21.225140 55.575286 140.449760
2026-01-04 0.124519 0.588704 2.198226 7.433340 22.416489 59.776803 153.537020